Summary
• The favourable weather conditions sees the Australian grain harvest in full swing, with wheat price softening.
• Whole cottonseed remains elevated, with users looking for alternatives.
• Canola meal remains at a significant price difference between December (~$560/mt ex Newcastle) and new season January 2023 (~$515/mt ex Newcastle).
• The Australian dollar remains strong in the $USD 0.67 range and finished today at $USD 0.6692.
• International soybean meal markets have risen and negated the stronger AUD/USD exchange rate. Pricing has pushed into the high $900’s/mt ex-port (today $970-990/mt).
• Terminal gate prices for diesel continue to fall slowly. It was below $2/litre today, at $1.94/litre ex Brisbane. If this trend continues this should see some softening in freight costs in early 2023.
Details
• Despite the impacts of wet weather impeding the early harvest, the national wheat crop is set to break records at 34.7 million tonnes. Darling Downs pricing for wheat has softened, with barley and wheat feed grade at similar value circa $380-385/mt delivered Darling Downs.
• Pricing for whole cottonseed remains stubbornly strong despite the strong AUD and may reflect the limited stocks untraded and the cautious outlook for the 2023 harvest. Cotton from the Moree region today would be approximately $410/mt ex gin and approximately $490-$500/mt delivered Darling Downs. Whole cottonseed ex Dalby is currently trading at approximately $495/mt ex gin, while new season cotton seed from Moree from April 2023 is indicative at $360/mt.
• Soybean meal has rallied on the international market, and despite the strong AUD, has risen significantly. Pricing for prompt soybean meal today circa $970-990/mt ex eastern port while forward quarters 2023 are as follows: Q1 (Jan to Mar) $940/mt; Q2 (Apr to June) $915/mt.
• Canola meal has the most value on a cost per unit of protein basis. Canola pricing for current material remains tight and remains above new season pricing. Pricing is only slightly lower for December supply, at approximately $560/mt ex Newcastle. New season canola meal from January 2023 is slightly higher than previous reports at $515- $520/mt ex Newcastle.
• The favourable harvesting conditions has seen a much-increased supply vs demand of straw on the Darling Downs. Quality is mostly reported as good to excellent, with pricing delivered to the Darling Downs market less than $200/mt. The recent rain event has provided follow-up moisture to established summer crops. The outlook for farm forage fibre supplies now look much more secure across most of the northern regions. With higher forage inventories and possibly softer grain pricing there may be downward pressure on non-forage fibre and energy by-product pricing.
• The following graph is the latest terminal gate price for diesel ex Brisbane. Wholesale diesel continues to slowly decline in price and has fallen from $2.06 to $1.94 over the last two weeks. This is down from the highs of $2.35/litre seen in the last peak approximately six weeks ago. We should see some softening in freight pricing as this starts to flow through to the retail network.
• Also following are graphs of the latest (November) World Bank international commodity price data. The main point compared to last month is a renewed rise in oilseed/oil pricing, reduced global grain pricing, and continued softening in global fertiliser pricing. These relative changes in the last month are minor compared to the current period of historically elevated pricing we are experiencing.
Brisbane's Average Terminal Gate Price Diesel
Graph of the AUD/USD exchange rate
List of some commodity suppliers (in alphabetical order)
BEC feed solutions 1300 884 593
Castlegate James 03 8311 2200
Direct Grains 0439 189 172
East Coast Stockfeeds 02 9525 2522
Energreen nutrition 07 38062268
Fodderlink 1800 363 337
Feed Central 07 4630 4899
Max grains 07 3510 6999
Norco grain trading 07 4637 3313
PBA feeds 07 4633 2266
Standard Commodities 0481 854 448
Wearing Carrying 0417 735 626
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